The Scenarios Awaiting Post-Isis Mosul

While the operation to re-take Mosul is on the horizon, several important challenges need to be carefully addressed in order to ensure that not only the operation itself, but also the process to reconstruct Mosul in the post-ISIS era run smoothly. This policy brief discusses the roles that might be played by the parties involved and possible scenarios for Mosul in the post-ISIS era. After investigating the challenges and efforts in terms of the planning stage and the operation itself, three scenarios will be put forth for the future of Mosul, namely the re-imposition of the pre-ISIS rule in the governorate, the creation of Mosul region, and the dissolution of the province. Lastly, how involved parties views differ over these different scenarios will be presented, followed by suggestions to devise a comprehensive long-term strategy.


(ORSAM Review of Regional Affairs, No.50, September 2016)