Kemal Salibi describes Lebanon as Since 1975, Lebanon has stood out in the world as a supreme example of political and social disorganization. The transformation of peaceful civil movements that began in Syria in 2011 into a bloody civil war had created a chaotic environment in the region and it also affected Lebanon by the context of its historical relations with Syria and its contentious  domestic politics which shows that Salibi's statement is still valid today.

With the recent incidents in Syria; Lebanon, has been turned into an arena of fighting over presentation by the actors having or demanding influence in the region, has turned its attention to the issue of Syria in its domestic and international politics. The presidential and parliamentary elections expected to be held in 2014 has reached a deadlock because of the issues related to the Syria; while the sectarian polarization in the country has been deepening, the problems of the refugees have increased. In this context, it can be said that the issue of Syria has affected Lebanon by three main subjects of not holding parliamentary and presidential elections, the role of Hezbollah and its transformation, and the refugees.

A new parliament could not be established because of the chaos in the political environment of the country, by establishing an interim government with the leadership of Temmam Selam it was aimed to enable the holding of presidential and government elections. However, the interim government was not successful in electing a new President; the opposite stance of the country's two essential political alliances of 14 March and 8 March movements on the Syrian issue had prevented the recognition of a generally accepted candidate for Presidency. The joining of Hezbollah to the Syrian civil war on the side of the regime has been essential since it has pointed to the stalemate in Lebanese politics and the transformation process of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, legitimizing itself with its opposition to Israel and drawing the support from both the Shii people and other elements, has become one of the most strongest military organizations in the region exceeding beyond the borders of Lebanon. Following the retreat of Israel from the lands of Lebanon "the resistance" has been put in the second place  and taking the political agenda based on the "national discourse" in the first place, Hezbollah has become one of the most powerful political actor in the country, especially with its impact on the failure of 2014 elections. Hezbollah, defining itself as the protector of Lebanon, has gained power in the society of Lebanon and especially in the region of Beka, with its activities in the field of education, health and infrastructure by saying "where the government is absent we are there". Its active involvement in the Syrian civil war on the side of the regime has made Hezbollah face a dilemma and is an essetial example showing the changing and evolving structure of it in the historical process. Becoming the symbol of resistance against Israel, the organisation has started to fight against Arabs for the first time by participating in the Syrian war. Even though Hezbollah explains its existence in Syria from the framework of national discourse as to protect Lebanon against the threats of  ISIS and Nusra Front, in Lebanon the current situation has been subjected to criticism especially by the Future Development with the belief that it pulls the country into chaos and creates the threat of spreading the war to the borders of the country.

As we put behind the first quarter of 2015, it has been observed that the country has been deeply affected in almost every field by the Syrian issue, even though there is not an active war in Lebanon. In the first stance, criticised because of its active role in the war, Hezbollah's blocking of the political system by boycotting the future holding of the elections has created a Lebanon without the government and has caused the Syrian issue and the external actors, wanting to have an impact, to have greater influence over the country. Furthermore, the active role of Hezbollah in the Syrian war has caused the increase of terror activities in Lebanon, while it also  increased the threat perception and therefore it caused an increase of sectarian polarization. In 2014 the fightings in Tripoli and helding as hostage of Lebanese soldiers by the ISIS-Nusra militants during the fights have resulted in a deepening polarization in the counrty. At this point while Hezbollah defines itself as an organization which protects the country from the radical organizations, in the Sunni society which has been in search of a leader, there is an increased support for organizations such as ISIS and Nusra, even though not supporting completely and  constrained to small areas. Finally, with the impact of the Syrian civil war, it has been observed that non state actors increased their influence in Lebanon as well as in the region.

The arrival of  according to the official estimations more than 1,5 million Syrian refugees to Lebanon, where fragile sectarian balance has vital importance, has created economic and social problems in addition to the political problems. It is obvious that for Lebanon,which has an estimated population of around 4 million, this kind of major flow of refugees will create increasing problems in various fields. Besides, unemployment, rapid increase in the rent prices due to the need for shelter and all similar socio-economic problems, the fact that a large part of the refugees are Sunni Arabs leads to the perception of threat to the sectarian balance of the country. Moreover, the fact that regime makes it impossible for Syrian Turkmens, who are also part of the refugees, to return back to the country, shows that Turkmen population in Lebanon will increase.

Finally, with our observations in the field, it can be said that the chaotic environment prevailing within the country creates an increased perception of threat and atmosphere of the fear. At this point where the mentioned perception and atmoshpere reinforce each other, the chaotic environment of Lebanon continue to degrade and it becomes more difficult to maintain peace in the country without the resolution of the Syrian issue.

This article was first published in ORSAM.